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How long will it take for folding screen mobile phones to become the "Darling" of high-end market

How long will it take for folding screen mobile phones to become the "Darling" of high-end market

How long will it take for folding screen mobile phones to become the "Darling" of high-end market

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Source: First Finance
 
How long will it take before folding screen phones become the "Darling" of the high-end market?
 
Affected by the epidemic prevention and control and the resumption of production, the domestic mobile phone market declined significantly in January. According to the latest data released by China Academy of communications, in January, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 20813000, down 38.9% year on year; the shipment volume of domestic brand mobile phones was 18319000, down 42.9% year on year.
 
Under the sluggish market environment, new technologies and new forms of water testing have become the consensus of the industry. Among them, folding screen mobile phones are still the "Darling" of this spring's high-end mobile phone market.
 
On the evening of the 24th, after Samsung, Huawei officially released the folding screen mobile phone named Huawei mate XS, which is the second folding screen product released by Huawei after mate x, with the price starting from 2499 euros (about 19000 yuan). Before that, mate x version was once speculation in the market as high as 100000 yuan.
Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi consulting, told the first financial reporter that it is expected that the shipment scale of folding screen terminals will be about 4 million this year.
 
Strategy analytics, a global research organization, believes that global shipments of folding screen mobile phones are expected to grow from less than 1 million last year to 100 million in 2025, becoming the fastest growing segment of the high-end smartphone market in the next decade.
 
Technology iteration speed up
 
The mobile phone screen has always been one of the key points for the mobile phone manufacturers to attract consumers' attention. After the latest wave of comprehensive screen reform, the proportion of the mainstream flagship models has reached the extreme, so the space for improvement is very limited, and the size of the body has also reached the limit of portability and operability. In order to stimulate the sales of mobile phones, flexible screen research and development has appeared in the laboratories of major manufacturers since a few years ago.
 
Compared with the traditional screen, the flexible screen has obvious advantages. It is not only lighter in volume, but also lower in power consumption than the original device, which helps to improve the endurance of the device. At the same time, based on its bendable and flexible characteristics, its durability is also significantly higher than the previous screen, reducing the probability of accidental damage of the device.
 
In terms of form, there are various folding methods for foldable mobile phones. For example, Huawei mate XS adopts external folding, while Samsung Galaxy Z flip adopts vertical folding.
 
Compared with the technical changes of folding screen products last year, Li Yaqin told reporters that at present, on the one hand, the mechanical shaft was redesigned to enhance the hinge strength. On the other hand, according to different panel suppliers, some of the screen protection materials are improved by using ultra-thin glass cover (UTG) and some by using double-layer CPI (polyimide film).
 
"At present, the structure of folding screen is mainly divided into four layers, which are screen protection layer, flexible flexible screen, soft rubber support plate and hinge of rotating shaft. Folding screen in the use of medium frequency folding screen, protection cover and hinge, etc. put forward a lot of challenges Li Yaqin told reporters.
 
According to Huawei's official introduction, Huawei's matexes screen adopts double-layer space class polyimide flexible material, with the strength 80% higher than that of single-layer, and the price of equal weight material is three times higher than that of gold. Under the screen, there is also a layer of flexible graphite heat dissipation material. The bionic design of flying fin can perfectly adapt to the folding shape, and the heat can be transmitted across the screen to achieve balanced heat dissipation. In addition, the hinge system has more than 100 devices, using zirconium based liquid metal and other materials to greatly improve the hinge strength.
 
The popularization of folding screen mobile phones is expected to promote investment opportunities in display, hinge, heat dissipation and battery industry chain, according to the Research Report of Anxin securities. Take the screen as an example, according to IHS data, the shipment volume of flexible AMOLED panels in 2018 has reached 157.6 million pieces, more than three times higher than that of 46.5 million pieces in 2015, with an annual compound growth rate of 50%. This year, there is a chance to reach 174 million pieces.
 
"Interactive ecology" experience is the key
 
Apart from the hardware technology, the main reason why folding screen can re ignite the mobile phone market is the improvement of interactive experience.
 
To some extent, the change of mobile screen affects the interaction design of application developers. After the screen is foldable, the application of mobile phone will develop from single size screen to multiple size screens. If the future mobile phone manufacturers launch a variety of folding screen schemes, if there is a big change in the proportion of the resolution, it will lead to application display problems.
 
For folding screen optimization, Google released Android Q operating system for folding screen optimization, and Microsoft launched windows 10x operating system for dual screen and folding screen devices, but it is still ecologically fragmented. Take Google as an example. At present, the application ecology of Android Tablet is mostly based on the direct extension of Android mobile software, which will directly affect the advantages of large screen display of Android folding screen.
 
A developer from an Internet company in China told reporters that in terms of technology, the application of adaptive mobile phones is not complicated, but rather cumbersome. "It depends on the manufacturer's positioning of the folding screen, whether the game is a lightweight office, and now the answers given by the mainstream terminal manufacturers are not the same."
 
According to the announcement on the 24th, Huawei is more inclined to add lightweight office, social and other attributes to the folding screen mobile phone ecosystem. Huawei said users can switch the folding screen between the mobile phone and the tablet as needed. Through the parallel view, the user can simultaneously open the two-level interface of an application. When multiple applications are running, the two applications can be displayed in separate screens at the same time and run independently. The application room can also drag files such as pictures, text, videos, etc. the third application can also be opened through the split screen shortcut bar.
 
"For example, online shopping application can display more product information in large screen, and in some mobile office applications, it can support application to open two-level task interface, browse inbox, view detailed information and edit reply at the same time." Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business, said in his on-site speech that in order to quickly build the folding screen application ecology, Huawei is also promoting the adaptation and improvement of small screen to large screen interactive experience, and creating an open ecological alliance of folding screen applications.
 
The developers of the above Internet companies told reporters that the richness of folding screen applications will be the core of competition among mobile phone manufacturers in the future, which will also be transformed into a competition of folding ecology and human-computer interaction efficiency experience.

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