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China's mobile phone screen shortages add another bad news, Apple also came to grab capacity

China's mobile phone screen shortages add another bad news, Apple also came to grab capacity

China's mobile phone screen shortages add another bad news, Apple also came to grab capacity

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Full screen! out of stock! Price increase! Is currently the focus of attention in the small and medium size display market in China.

But is the full screen market really coming? The situation learned from the market shows that it may be that the terminal brand manufacturers were too optimistic before, and did not realize the dynamic changes in the production capacity of the panel factory. As a result, most of the newly opened full-screen mold models can only be proofed without energy production. !!

Certainly someone will ask, isn't it that domestic panel makers are opening full-screen molds, adjusting production capacity, and actively switching to model production? That's right. Everyone is making full-screen products for the models assigned to mobile phone screens. However, the production capacity of panel factories does not fully cover mobile phone screens.

First, overseas low-generation production line capacity is still being closed due to uneconomic operation. Samsung plans to shut down a fifth-generation line next month, which will cause a huge loss in the low-generation panel capacity that is already scarce in the global market.

And because this line has taken orders for Apple laptops' Retina resolution displays, Apple is now desperately chasing orders, leaving Samsung to full production before the line is shut down. In order to ensure the subsequent production, Apple adjusts its procurement strategy to lower the The regulatory panel was transferred to BOE to grab the panel capacity of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers.

So what about the remaining overseas mobile phone panel production capacity? It stands to reason that after Apple transferred half of its new cell phone production capacity this year to Samsung to produce OLED displays, there was a surplus of more than 100 million pieces of LCD order capacity, which can always allow Chinese mobile phones Let's eat it.

In fact, Apple ’s abandoned LCD production capacity has indeed affected the domestic mobile phone screen market. Since these production capacities are all LTPS processes, processing of multiple domestic LTPS process 6th generation lines has started mass production, but the entire domestic mobile phone market For various reasons, such as the inventory adjustment of medium and high-end models and the small change in the number of shipments, the price of LTPS-LCD panels has declined somewhat, even for a-Si panel products with a size of more than 5 inches. In the first half of this year The market price has also fallen.

Secondly, in the application of domestic smart phones, the overall cost of LTPS-LCD panels is still very expensive. Only about one-third of domestic smart phones can afford them. Most other smartphones also need to use a-Si process LCDs. Display screens, and the other 700-800 million domestic feature phones, all use a-Si LCD.

Finally, let's look at the full-screen products. The overseas low-generation panel a-Si process production line is almost finished. If the production capacity of the production line is not closed, it will also produce more profitable automotive front-loading products and industrial control and medical products. For high value-added products, no matter whether the mobile phone uses a full screen, these production lines will not return to produce mobile phone screens.

台湾的低世代a-Si工艺面板线,除了主要客户是手机的彩晶在全力推全面屏产品外,其它的低世代面板线,也是全奔着车载屏去了。而彩晶的产能,要供应那么多国产品牌,每家又能分到多少货呢。

剩下的国内低世代a-Si工艺面板线,京东方都已经在用8.5代线来切手机屏了,都不能满足市场的需求,你还能指望有富余的产能出来吗?而龙腾、天马、京东方的低世代面板线要转18:9全面屏产品,产能只会在现在的基础上损失更多,造成市场供应更紧张。

并且去年的价格回调后,功能机面板的价格优势并不比智能手机差,而且由于海外供应越来越少,库存消耗殆尽后,现在价格还在继续上涨中,所以原来这些功能机的产能,很难有效转换为智能手机产能,毕竟比起相对稳定的功能机客户来,智能手机市场还在死亡淘汰赛中,万一遇到一个倒霉的客户,就是去别人股东大会那拉横幅也没用。

而IGZO工艺的手机面板呢,国内的华东科技不管是用8代线来切手机屏,还是用低世代线来切手机屏,不管市场价格怎么回调,好像到目前为止都没有什么钱赚,而且产能也就那样。至于另外一个号称全面屏的始祖——夏普,那位“安卓爸爸”发布的第一代全面屏手机都还供不来上货,迟迟不能上市,短时间内也不太可能有产能给国产手机用。

之前行业预判今年下半年至少有一半的手机会用上全面屏,是基于LTPS LCD会大幅降价,国产手机的单价能够往上攀升300~600块的前提下。但在上半年中国手机市场增幅回落,库存调整期拉长的情形下,产能拉动不足,不但没能让LPTS LCD的价格降下来,而且还影响了LTPS LCD推广全面屏的积极性,几乎为中国手机品牌服务的面板厂商,在LTPS LCD全面屏产品的量产时间上,都往后推迟了半个月以上,基本上要到8月份以后,才会真正出货到市场。

国产中高端机型的价格与产能上不去,LTPS LCD的应用数量上不来,市场需求总量还在那,那么大家就只有扩大中低级机型的生产数量,继续采购成本更低的a-Si工艺手机面板。

Sources in the industry said that Huawei ’s mobile phones, which have a fast response time, started to operate as early as June, contracting a domestic panel maker ’s a-Si process production line for three months of mobile phone panel production, and these orders are all 16: 9 It seems that in order to achieve the shipment targets set this year, to fill the vacant market for the delay of the full-screen product launch time, Huawei first started to control the front-end production capacity, which will make Huawei ’s mobile phones this year ’s The market shipment performance brought unexpected surprises to everyone.

So when the supply of a-Si capacity, which was already tight in the Chinese market, was to be partly removed by Apple's computer panels, Huawei also controlled a part of the a-Si process mobile phone panel to produce 16: 9 Conventional specification products will only lead to a shortage of a-Si process panels in the Chinese market. Rather than expect the price of LPTS LCD to fall and compete for full-screen production capacity, mobile phone terminal manufacturers might as well grab a 16: 9 conventional a-Si panel first.

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